Bitcoin has added $327 billion in market cap since its February 5 bottom, and the odds of a dip to $60,000 in April have collapsed. The April 15 market is now at 100% YES, up from 20% a week ago.

The recovery coincides with ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions. The April 16 sub-market for Bitcoin above $68K is at 99.9% YES, while April 19 above $60K sits at 99.8% YES. All active sub-markets price Bitcoin staying above $60,000, with most at or near 100% YES.

Volume is at $390,585 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with the April 16 market alone accounting for $301,452 in daily volume. At these levels, it would take major capital to move the odds in any direction.

The $327 billion recovery points to a support level forming around $65,000-$66,000. That this happened during active US-Iran tensions, rather than in a calm macro environment, makes the floor more credible. But any escalation in the conflict could still hit sentiment and price.

Watch US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. A breakdown could trigger risk-off moves that test Bitcoin’s current support. Comments from Larry Fink and Jerome Powell, along with geopolitical developments, will shape how traders position over the coming weeks.

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