Glassnode identifies first Bitcoin bear market without price drop below realized price

Every Bitcoin bear market since at least 2017 has shared one brutal ritual: price eventually crashes below the realized price, the on-chain metric that represents the average cost basis of every coin on the network. This time, it didn’t happen.

Glassnode’s latest on-chain report, dated September 23, 2026, confirms that Bitcoin never posted a daily close below its realized price during the current bear market. The June 2026 low, which marked the cycle’s deepest drawdown, still held above that critical threshold. During the 2018-2019 bear market and again in 2022-2023, Bitcoin spent extended stretches trading below this line, meaning the average holder was sitting on unrealized losses.

Why the realized price matters

Think of the realized price as Bitcoin’s collective break-even point. It’s calculated by valuing each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then averaging the whole supply. When the market price drops below it, the typical Bitcoin holder is underwater.

Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric, known as NUPL, reinforces the point. NUPL stayed positive throughout the entire cycle. That’s never happened in a Bitcoin bear market before. It means that while individual holders certainly took losses, the network as a whole never tipped into aggregate loss territory.

The percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit did dip to levels that mirror November 2022. Losses were broad but shallow, which helps explain why selling pressure never reached the capitulation levels of prior cycles.

Where Bitcoin sits now

As of late September 2026, Bitcoin has rallied back above the True Market Mean, which sits at approximately $77,000. The price is now hovering near a significant long-term holder supply cluster between $84,000 and $85,000.

The next major test sits higher. Glassnode flags the mean Market-Value-to-Realized-Value price at roughly $96,700 as the key resistance level. Options market gamma positioning aligns with this zone too, clustering between $95,000 and $97,000.

US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have surged recently, with approximately $1.3 billion flowing in over just five trading sessions. That represents the largest intake since early July. Spot trading volumes have more than doubled from their recent lows.

What makes this cycle structurally different

The presence of spot ETFs, which didn’t exist during the 2018 or 2022 bear markets, introduced a class of investor that buys and holds through traditional brokerage accounts.

Weekly net realized profit and loss during the current recovery phase also remains far below the levels seen during the 2024-2025 peaks, indicating that holders are not rushing to take profits the way they did when Bitcoin was making new highs.