Bitcoin’s Bull Index drops to 30 after Fed’s rate hike

One week. That’s all it took for Bitcoin’s most-watched sentiment indicator to swing from confidently bullish to firmly bearish. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index cratered from 80 to 30 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%.

It was the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023, and the crypto market’s reaction was about as warm as you’d expect when cheap money gets more expensive again.

What the Bull Score Index is actually telling us

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index aggregates multiple on-chain and market signals to gauge the overall health of Bitcoin’s trend. Readings above 60 indicate bullish conditions, while anything below 40 signals bearish sentiment.

The timing is striking. In late August, the index had surged toward 80 as Bitcoin pushed above $80,000, riding a wave of optimism that the macro environment would remain accommodative. That optimism evaporated the moment the Fed signaled it was willing to tighten again.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,000, having shed roughly 4% over the past week. Intraday moves have been modest, ranging between -0.4% and -1%, but the broader direction is clearly downward.

The Fed’s pivot changes the math

For context, the Fed spent much of 2024 and 2025 cutting rates after its aggressive tightening cycle peaked in 2023. Markets had grown accustomed to the easing trajectory. The September 2026 hike represents a philosophical reversal, not just a policy tweak.

The 25 basis point increase to the 3.75%-4.00% range was widely anticipated, which makes the market’s reaction more notable. Traders had time to price this in, yet the Bull Score Index still collapsed by 50 points.

Projections indicate at least one additional rate hike is expected before the end of the year. If the Fed follows through, the target range could push toward 4.25%.

On-chain signals reinforce the bearish read

Short-term holder sentiment has weakened, suggesting that recent buyers are sitting on losses or slim margins and growing anxious.

ETF outflows have also become notable. After months of inflows that helped prop up prices during the summer rally, the flow has reversed direction.

CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that for a sustained bullish market to reassert itself, two conditions need to be met simultaneously: the Bull Score Index must climb back above 60, and Bitcoin’s closing price needs to exceed $83,000. Neither of those thresholds looks particularly close at current levels.

The gap between Bitcoin’s current price of roughly $76,000 and the $83,000 level represents about a 9% move.