Bitcoin could outperform gold, equities as year-end seasonality favors risk assets, analyst says

Bitcoin could gain an edge over gold and equities as year-end seasonality supports risk assets, according to Block Scholes research analyst Habib Rahman.

Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has risen to 54%, its highest level in data going back to 2014, while its correlation with US equities has weakened.

Over the past month, gold has dropped 7% and briefly traded below $4,000 an ounce, while Bitcoin has held around $80,000, suggesting resilient crypto demand despite the Federal Reserve’s rate hike last month.

Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq-100 has fallen from 59% in February to 33%, near a one-year low, while its correlation with the US dollar strength index has reached its most negative level since early 2023, according to Block Scholes data.

The shift in correlations began in June and accelerated in August after the US Treasury stepped up its bond buyback program to limit longer-term yields, Rahman noted. Bitcoin posted its strongest weekly gain since March 2024 in the week after the announcement, while gold rose 5%.

Over the past 90 trading sessions, Bitcoin’s daily price moves were 1.7 times the size of gold’s. On days when gold rose, Bitcoin gained an average of 1.1%, compared with gold’s 1% increase. On gold’s down days, Bitcoin fell 0.5% on average, while gold declined 1.1%.

“As we head closer to the mid-term elections in the US and two of the most seasonally bullish months for risk assets (November and December), we could expect to see another bout of crypto asset outperformance,” Rahman stated.