Bitcoin miners have spent the past year convincing Wall Street that they are secretly data center companies. A June 2026 analysis from VanEck lays out both the opportunity and the credibility problem facing publicly traded miners attempting to reposition around artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure.

The math is good. The execution is not.

AI and HPC contracts generate more than three times the revenue per megawatt compared to traditional Bitcoin mining. That means the same power capacity that earns a miner X dollars in Bitcoin rewards could earn 3X or more if it is leased to an AI workload instead.

Firms including IREN, Hut 8, TeraWulf, Cipher Mining, and Core Scientific have announced multi-year contracts worth tens of billions of dollars in aggregate revenue commitments. Industry-wide, announced AI infrastructure contracts in the mining sector range from $65B to $90B as of mid-2026, according to VanEck.

Only about 25% of the AI capacity that miners have leased has actually been brought online as of mid-2026. Multiple insider share sales at key companies have amplified the skepticism. TeraWulf’s CEO sold approximately 1.59 million shares just before a major lease announcement, drawing pointed scrutiny over the timing.

The funding math is uncomfortable

VanEck estimates a near-term funding gap of roughly $50B for miners trying to build out the AI infrastructure they have promised. The long-run figure is even starker, with up to $221B required to meet the full scope of announced infrastructure ambitions.

Post-halving dynamics, combined with an all-time high network hashrate and compressed hashprices, have made straight Bitcoin mining a difficult business. Many miners are responding by selling their Bitcoin holdings to fund the pivot toward AI infrastructure. For some operators, AI could account for over 70% of revenues by the end of 2026, according to VanEck’s projections.

A two-speed sector

IREN, Hut 8, TeraWulf, Cipher Mining, and Core Scientific have all secured long-term contracts, in many cases ten-year-plus agreements, with meaningful revenue commitments attached. Marathon, Riot, and CleanSpark have moved more slowly on the AI transition and remain heavily correlated to Bitcoin’s price.

What the VanEck analysis makes clear is that the market is no longer treating all miners as a monolithic group. Energized AI capacity and delivery track record against announced contracts are becoming the new scorecard, supplanting hashrate and Bitcoin treasury size as the key valuation metrics.

Until the delivery rate moves substantially above that 25% figure, the story remains more prospectus than proof.