Bitcoin must hold $75,500 to preserve bull market structure, Hilbert Group analyst says

Bitcoin must hold above $75,500 to preserve the bullish market structure established since its summer lows, according to Jesse Marre, senior portfolio manager at digital asset investment firm Hilbert Group.

In the firm’s October 26 weekly market update, Marre said Bitcoin faces a critical test after recording five consecutive daily declines, losing 5.4% over the week and briefly falling below $80,000.

Bitcoin began last week trading near $84,800 before selling pressure across equities and rising oil prices pushed the cryptocurrency to a weekend low of approximately $79,200.

Marre identified immediate support between $78,500 and $79,500, where Bitcoin is testing a trend line that has helped sustain its recent consolidation.

However, he warned that $75,500 represents a more important structural threshold, with a break below that level potentially reversing the recovery established since the summer.

The analyst said a sustained decline below $75,500 could send Bitcoin back toward its previous trading range lows.

On the upside, reclaiming $81,400 would return Bitcoin to its near term consolidation range, while a move above $85,000 and $87,500 could open the way for another rally toward $95,000 to $98,000.

Bitcoin ETF inflows remain positive despite selling pressure

Despite Bitcoin’s recent decline, US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds recorded approximately $442 million in net inflows over the week, according to Hilbert Group.

The positive weekly figure came despite $635 million in withdrawals on Thursday alone, highlighting a sharp reversal in institutional flows as cryptocurrency prices weakened.

Marre said ETF activity closely followed Bitcoin’s spot market performance, with inflows concentrated early in the week before investors withdrew funds during the selloff.

He argued that the pattern suggests recent price movements were largely driven by spot trading rather than excessive leverage in derivatives markets.

Options markets also showed growing demand for downside protection.

Deribit’s DVol index, which measures expected Bitcoin volatility, rose slightly to 38, while five delta put options traded at 44% implied volatility compared with 38% for equivalent call options.

The higher implied volatility on puts indicates that traders were paying a premium for protection against further price declines.

Meanwhile, Hilbert’s global liquidity index stood at 3.06, reflecting constrained market liquidity.

The firm’s six factor liquidity model recorded a weekly decline of 0.47 in its Z score, suggesting that financial conditions were deteriorating.

“Bitcoin will trade heavy when we have constrained liquidity and free cash being drained out of the system,” Marre said.

Oil prices and AI stock selloff weigh on Bitcoin

The analyst attributed much of Bitcoin’s recent weakness to broader financial market developments, including rising geopolitical tensions and renewed concerns about artificial intelligence valuations.

Brent crude climbed toward $117 per barrel amid speculation that President Donald Trump was preparing another military offensive against Iran.

Oil subsequently retreated below $114 after Trump said no immediate offensive was planned, although prices remained elevated.

At the same time, concerns about AI valuations triggered selling across major technology stocks.

Nvidia declined approximately 8% over the week, while Meta fell 9%, according to Hilbert’s report.

The Nasdaq Composite ended the week down roughly 2%, following an intraday decline approaching 3.6%.

The simultaneous weakness in cryptocurrencies and equities highlighted Bitcoin’s continued sensitivity to changes in investor risk appetite.

Marre said tightening liquidity and elevated energy prices could continue weighing on digital assets if investors remain cautious.

Hilbert expects Fed to hold rates with hawkish message

Looking ahead, Marre identified the Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision as a major event for cryptocurrency markets.

The analyst expects the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged while maintaining a hawkish outlook because of persistent inflation and resilient economic growth.

The Federal Reserve’s calendar confirms that policymakers are meeting October 27 and 28, with another decision scheduled for December 9.

A Reuters survey published October 20 found that economists overwhelmingly expected rates to remain unchanged in October, followed by another increase in December.

Marre said an immediate rate hike would be surprising given current market expectations and recent weakness in equities.

He argued that the Fed could maintain pressure on inflation through its messaging without tightening monetary policy at this meeting.

For Bitcoin, the analyst sees $75,500 as the key level separating the current bullish structure from a potential return to lower trading ranges.

A recovery above $87,500, meanwhile, would strengthen his outlook for a move toward $95,000 to $98,000, provided broader market conditions improve.