Bitcoin is closing in on its fourth consecutive green weekly candle, rising 5.64% this week to hit $78,000. The Polymarket contract asking whether Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 by April 30 sits at
Market reaction
The rally marks Bitcoin’s longest weekly winning streak since May 2025, driven by easing geopolitical tensions following the US-Iran ceasefire. Bitcoin has climbed 25% from its “Iran War” low of $62,000, a $15,000 gain over four weeks. The April 30 contract shows no meaningful expectation of a downturn.
Trading volume, however, is thin. The combined 24-hour face value for the “Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?” market is $0. The order book is shallow enough that $503 would move the price by 5 percentage points, meaning even a modest trade could swing the odds significantly.
Why it matters
At 0% YES, the market is pricing in virtually zero probability of Bitcoin falling back to $60,000 within the next week. Sentiment has shifted from fear to greed on the back of the ceasefire, and the four-week price trajectory has made a $15,000 retracement in days look implausible to traders. The thin liquidity cuts both ways: the consensus is overwhelming, but it wouldn’t take much capital to challenge it.
See what prediction markets are pricing into the day's biggest stories.
Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy.
What to watch
Monitor Jerome Powell and Larry Fink for any statements that could shift sentiment. Oil prices and any changes to the US-Iran ceasefire status are the most direct catalysts that could reintroduce downside risk to Bitcoin.
API access
Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.