Bitcoin needs ETF flows to confirm Fed-driven rally to $93,000, Bitget analyst says

Bitcoin’s recent price rally has been supported by lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, but the crypto asset needs stronger market flows to confirm a move toward $90,000-$93,000, according to Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet.

CME FedWatch showed the probability of an October hike at about 19% on Oct. 6, down from 51% a week earlier following September payroll growth of just 29,000. A decline in Treasury yields and further evidence of softer inflation could give Bitcoin additional room to rise, Zhang noted.

“ETF demand remains supportive, but it is not yet strong enough on its own to force a breakout,” Zhang told Crypto Briefing. “US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.6 billion in September and approximately $134 million across the first two trading sessions of October. Bitcoin’s repeated failure to hold above $87,000 suggests that profit-taking and existing supply are still absorbing institutional demand.”

Bitcoin ETF flows became increasingly choppy heading into October after hitting a $999 million daily net inflow peak on Sept. 21. The shift marked a sharp slowdown in institutional buying, with investors alternating between fresh allocations and profit-taking rather than maintaining the strong accumulation seen in late September.

The pattern continued into October, with net inflows of $103 million on Oct. 1 and approximately $190 million on Oct. 2 before flows swung to $90 million in net redemptions on Oct. 5, per Farside Investors.

BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant Bitcoin ETF, with cumulative net inflows approaching $66 billion. The fund has consistently brought in new money even on days when the ETF market records net outflows.

Zhang said a convincing breakout would require sustained ETF inflows, stronger spot buying and a daily or weekly close above roughly $87,400. The next upside targets are $90,000 and $93,000, while $84,000 and $82,000 are key downside levels, she added.

“The main risks are a stronger-than-expected CPI or PPI report, renewed oil-driven inflation, hawkish Fed guidance or another rise in long-term yields. Any of these could revive rate-hike expectations and push Bitcoin back toward $84,000, with $82,000 as the next major support,” she stated.

Bitcoin fell back below $86,000 at press time after reaching $86,698 earlier this morning, as most altcoins also declined. The last time BTC traded above $90,000 was in January.