Bitcoin rebounds to $78.7K as US-Iran tensions ease

Bitcoin climbed above $78.7K, and the market for Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by June 30 is at 4% YES, up from 3% twenty-four hours ago.

Market reaction

Easing US-Iran tensions have helped Bitcoin recover. The ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz calmed fears that had previously pushed Bitcoin down to $65,834. The Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 market ticked up modestly. The September 30 and December 31 contracts sit at 10% and 18% YES, respectively, and have barely moved.

Why it matters

The term structure shows a notable jump between the September 30 and December 31 contracts, which suggests traders expect a catalyst in late 2026, possibly sustained ETF inflows or regulatory developments. The market predicting Bitcoin reaching $88,000 by April 26 sits at a negligible 0.2% YES.

What to watch

The market’s combined face value is $8,027, with actual USDC traded at $917, showing low order book depth. It takes just $959 to move the June 30 odds by 5 points, so these markets are thin. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike in the September 30 contract.

A YES share priced at 4¢ offers a 25x return if Bitcoin hits a new all-time high by June 30. That bet assumes a continued rally and no major geopolitical disruptions.

Watch for announcements from Michael Saylor or regulatory changes from the U.S. Treasury. Either could shift Bitcoin’s trajectory and move these contracts.

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