Bitcoin’s price crossed $72,000, wiping out nearly $50 million in short positions, but the market for Bitcoin reaching $74,000 by April 12 sits at just 1%.

The Bitcoin Above $60,000 on April 12 market is at 100% YES. The Ethereum Above $1,600 on April 12 market is also at 100% YES, suggesting the rally extends beyond Bitcoin. Traders are still pricing the $74,000 target during April 6-12 at 1%.

The sub-market for Bitcoin reaching $74,000 had $33,584 in USDC traded daily, with only $806 needed to move the price by 5 percentage points. That thin order book means large trades can easily swing the odds. The biggest single move was a 12-point spike at 6:37 PM, likely driven by a single large order.

For traders, the $72,000 breakout coincides with ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, which have historically moved crypto prices. The current odds for $74,000 are low, but buying YES at 1¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 100x return. That bet requires either a continued rally or a further geopolitical shock.

Watch for developments in U.S.-Iran relations or changes in military actions, which could push Bitcoin’s price toward or away from the $74,000 target before April 12.

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