Bitcoin’s win rate against the S&P 500 climbs back above 50%

Bitcoin is winning more often than it loses again. Its win rate against the S&P 500 has climbed back above 50%, a sign that individual demand for the asset is getting stronger.

The numbers behind the comeback

A win rate here measures how often Bitcoin beats the S&P 500 over a rolling window of trading sessions. Anything above 50% means Bitcoin is outperforming in more sessions than it trails.

The low point came in mid-August. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s three-month session win rate against the S&P 500 sank to 37.8%. That was its weakest reading in six years.

September changed the scoreboard. Bitcoin gained roughly 7% during the month, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat, moving somewhere between 0% and 0.3%.

Gold had a rougher time, falling more than 6% over the same stretch.

Zoom out to mid-August and the gap gets wider. Since then, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has risen approximately 36%. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% in that period.

Bitcoin also strung together three consecutive weeks of outperforming the index in September.

Decoupling from Wall Street

Analysts at Santiment reported that Bitcoin is now moving independently of stocks, with its correlation to the S&P 500 effectively broken.

Bitcoin’s 260-day correlation with the index now sits at its lowest level since 2015.

Smaller holders who sold out in mid-August have since come back into the market, adding a meaningful source of demand.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted multiple strong days of net inflows in September, coinciding with Bitcoin’s relative strength against equities.

How we got here

Earlier in 2026, Bitcoin spent months underperforming traditional assets. The slide in its win rate to 37.8% captured that frustration in a single number. Then the trend flipped, and the speed of the turnaround stands out: from a six-year low in relative performance to a winning record in roughly a month.

What this means for investors

The ETF flows are worth watching closely. Strong inflow days in September suggest institutional money is responding to Bitcoin’s relative strength.

The retail angle deserves some caution. Smaller holders tend to chase momentum, selling into weakness and buying back into strength. Their return adds fuel, but that kind of demand can be fickle when the price stops cooperating.

With gold down more than 6% in September while Bitcoin climbed roughly 7%, the debate over which asset better serves as a store of value is likely to keep running.

The key metric to track is whether the win rate can hold above 50% over the coming weeks. The correlation figure is the other gauge to monitor. If it stays near its lowest level since 2015, investors may increasingly treat Bitcoin as its own asset class, with its own drivers and its own risks.