China assures US it won’t supply weapons to Iran during ceasefire

China has assured the US it won’t supply weapons to Iran during the ceasefire period. The odds of Trump announcing the end of the US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sit at 8% YES, down from 13% yesterday.

Market reaction

The ceasefire market April 21 holds at 76% YES. The April 22 permanent peace deal odds fell to 15.5%, consistent with reduced risk of immediate escalation. The April 30 market crept up to 37.5%, meaning traders price in more room for a deal over the longer window.

Why it matters

Daily volume on the April 21 ceasefire market is at $103,412 USDC, liquid enough to reflect genuine sentiment. Order book depth shows $7,860 is needed to move the price 5 points, which means moderate resistance to abrupt shifts. The largest price move was an 8-point drop at 6:06 PM, likely driven by trades reacting to the China news.

What to watch

China’s assurance lowers the probability of immediate conflict escalation, but conflicting intelligence about covert aid to Iran persists, and that tension keeps the truce fragile. At 8¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire ends by April 21, a 12.5x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe China will fail to uphold its promise within five days.

Watch for Trump’s social media activity or Pentagon announcements on ceasefire breaches. Shifts in rhetoric from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar could also move the market.

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