Crypto funds add $1.4B as Bitcoin nears $78K, highest since February

Crypto funds took in $1.4 billion, with Bitcoin products accounting for $1.12 billion (including $1 billion from US spot ETFs), and the Polymarket question on whether Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 in April now trades at 100% YES for the April 13 $74K milestone. Bitcoin is trading near $78,000, its highest level since early February.

Market reaction

The April 13, 14, and 15 markets all sit at 100% YES, with identical term structure across those dates. Traders are pricing in near-certainty that Bitcoin holds above $74K through mid-April. The consistency across these contracts points to firm conviction rather than speculative noise.

Why it matters

Volume data shows zero face value traded in the last 24 hours for the April 13, 14, and 15 markets. The April 17 market, by contrast, has a combined face value of $170,088 and actual USDC traded at $136,002, which suggests active positioning around that specific date. Order book depth remains unchallenged, meaning the current pricing holds unless new information arrives.

What to watch

The $1.4 billion inflow into crypto funds reduces the probability of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 in April. A YES share on a Bitcoin dip to $60K trades at 22¢ and pays $1 if it resolves, but that bet requires believing a major negative catalyst will hit within 12 days. Watch for moves by Larry Fink and Michael Saylor on further Bitcoin allocations. Federal Reserve signals or geopolitical shifts could also change the calculus.

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