CryptoQuant CEO declares Bitcoin bear market over as price metric mirrors 2023 recovery

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared on August 25 that “the Bitcoin bear cycle is over,” backing the call with a proprietary on-chain indicator that just flashed the same signal it produced in January 2023. That earlier signal preceded a rally that carried Bitcoin from roughly $16,000 to an all-time high above $73,000.

The timing is notable. Bitcoin recently broke out of a consolidation range between $62,000 and $67,000, surging to approximately $79,400. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $1.92 billion in net inflows over five trading days during the move, suggesting institutional capital is betting that the bottom is in.

What the indicator actually measures

CryptoQuant’s PnL Index, the metric at the center of Ju’s call, is not a single data point. It aggregates three on-chain profitability measures: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) across different holder cohorts.

When you blend all three and watch them cross above their 365-day moving average, you get a signal that historically lines up with the transition from bear to bull territory. That crossing just happened.

Ju also pointed to the firm’s broader Bull Score metric, which aggregates 10 separate on-chain indicators. That score surged from 30 to 80 in just seven days, which CryptoQuant flagged as the fastest regime flip in a year. Eight of the ten indicators flipped bullish during the move.

A CEO who isn’t afraid to call both directions

It’s worth noting that Ju is not a perma-bull. Earlier in 2026, he publicly highlighted bearish market conditions, focusing on the divergence between realized cap and market cap dynamics.

The 2023 parallel is the strongest argument in his corner. In January of that year, the PnL Index crossed above its 365-day moving average when Bitcoin was trading near $16,000 to $17,000.

ETF inflows add fuel to the thesis

The $1.92 billion in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs over five trading days provides a demand-side confirmation that complements the profitability data.

The short-term holder cost basis sitting at around $68,500 adds another layer to the picture. At $79,400, Bitcoin is trading roughly 16% above that short-term holder cost basis.

The catch: confirmation is not guaranteed

Analysts, including those within CryptoQuant’s own research team, have been careful to note that a single indicator crossing does not guarantee a sustained bull market. The signal increases the probability that the $60,000 level represented a market bottom, but probability and certainty are very different animals.

For the bear-market-over thesis to hold, Bitcoin needs to maintain price strength above key realized-price levels. A drop back below the short-term holder cost basis near $68,500 would put recent buyers underwater and potentially trigger a wave of panic selling.