Europe’s consumers are feeling slightly less gloomy. The European Commission’s flash estimate for July 2026 put the euro area consumer confidence indicator at -15.9, clearing the consensus forecast of -17.0 and improving meaningfully from June’s confirmed reading of -17.7.

Three months of steady gains

The July print is the third consecutive monthly improvement since the index bottomed out at -20.6 in April 2026. May came in at -19, June at -17.7, and now July at -15.9. That is a roughly five-point swing in three months.

The long-run historical average for this indicator stretches back to 1985 and sits at -9.45. So even with the recent rebound, euro area households are still about six and a half points below what passes for “normal” sentiment over four decades of data.

The record low was -27.5 in September 2022, a period when energy costs were spiking across the continent following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and inflation was running at multi-decade highs. The current reading, while still negative, is comfortably above that crisis trough.

The data was released by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, known as DG ECFIN, on July 23. It is a flash estimate, meaning it is a preliminary read based on surveys conducted across the eurozone, with a more comprehensive update expected later in July or early August.

Why this matters beyond a single data point

Surveys like this ask households about their financial situation, their expectations for the broader economy, and their appetite for major purchases. The fact that the balance remains negative means more people are answering those questions with “worse” than “better.”

The gap between the current reading and the long-term average of -9.45 is worth watching. At -15.9, the index is recovering, not recovered.