French finance ministry projects public debt-to-GDP ratio at 119% in 2026, 122% in 2027

France’s finance ministry dropped its 2027 draft budget on September 19, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to hit 119.3% this year and climb to 121.7% in 2027, a record that places Europe’s second-largest economy in a category of indebtedness typically reserved for countries whose fiscal reputations have already taken serious hits.

To put that in perspective, France’s debt already stood at 117.5% of GDP as of the first quarter of 2026, translating to roughly €3.536 trillion in absolute terms.

The budget math isn’t adding up

The ministry forecasts a public deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2026, actually worse than the 5.1% recorded in 2025. The goal for 2027 is to bring that down to 5%, which the ministry itself has characterized as ambitious yet achievable.

On the revenue side, tax receipts are expected to tick up by 0.3 percentage points as a share of GDP, pushing the overall tax burden to 44.2% in 2027 from 43.9% in 2026.

The macroeconomic assumptions underlying the budget are notably subdued. GDP growth is projected at just 0.5% for 2026 with inflation at 2.1%. Things improve slightly in 2027 with growth forecast at 1.0% and inflation moderating to 1.8%.

What markets and policymakers are watching

The Haut Conseil des finances publiques, France’s independent fiscal watchdog, is expected to issue its opinion on these projections soon. That assessment will carry significant weight. If the HCFP flags the growth assumptions as overly optimistic or questions the deficit reduction path, bond markets will adjust accordingly.

The projected tax increases also present a domestic economic risk. With the tax burden pushed above 44% of GDP, that could further dampen household demand and corporate investment, making the already-modest 1.0% growth target for 2027 harder to achieve.