Punchbowl News survey shows Hill aides doubt crypto tax bill passes this year

Congressional staffers have weighed in on crypto tax legislation, and the mood is somewhere between skeptical and resigned.

A Canvass poll of Hill aides, reported by Punchbowl News on October 4, 2026, found that just 10% of respondents think a bill setting tax rules for digital assets is likely to pass before December 31, 2026.

That is a striking number for an industry that spent much of the year pushing for clarity. It means nine out of ten of the people who actually staff the legislative process are not betting on a tax bill this year.

A crowded calendar and a skeptical champion

The main obstacle is timing. Congress is heading into a busy lame-duck session, the stretch between an election and the arrival of a new Congress, when lawmakers race to clear must-pass items before the clock runs out.

Crypto tax bills do not sit high on that list. Punchbowl’s reporting points out that crypto tax measures face extra hurdles that other tax issues do not, which makes squeezing them into a packed post-election agenda even harder.

The pessimism is not limited to anonymous aides. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), one of the crypto sector’s most prominent supporters in Congress, also voiced doubt about the odds of moving a tax bill this year.

The House did its part. The Senate is another story.

The gloomy forecast lands despite real progress in the House. On September 16, 2026, the House Ways and Means Committee approved the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, H.R. 10357, by a 38-5 vote.

The bill bundles several provisions the industry has wanted for a while. Among them is de minimis relief for transaction fees of $10 or less, a carve-out meant to spare users from tax headaches over very small amounts. The bill also includes provisions on stablecoins and wash-sale rules.

Wash-sale rules, in traditional markets, are designed to stop investors from selling an asset at a loss and quickly buying it back just to claim a tax deduction. Applying that framework to digital assets would close a gap that has long separated crypto from stocks in the tax code.

On the Senate side, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) introduced a related draft in late September or early October 2026. His version addresses stablecoin payments and wash-sale extensions, showing some parallel interest in the upper chamber.

The Clarity Act shadow

The tax bill’s prospects are also colored by recent history. The Clarity Act, a separate piece of crypto market-structure legislation, recently collapsed in the Senate.

Both market-structure rules and tax rules depend on the same scarce resource: Senate floor time and political will. A high-profile failure on one front does little to build momentum on the other.

What this means for the industry

For traders, builders and investors, the immediate consequence is more of the same uncertainty around how digital assets are taxed. Provisions like the de minimis relief and the stablecoin rules would remain in limbo if the bill stalls through year-end.

Small, everyday crypto use is where the delay may be felt most directly. A fee threshold of $10 or less is aimed squarely at routine transactions, the kind that make paying with crypto practical rather than an accounting chore.

H.R. 10357 and the Daines draft overlap on stablecoins and wash-sale treatment, and that common ground could form the basis of a future deal. If the bill does not pass this session, the bipartisan 38-5 committee vote would likely need to be revisited once new lawmakers are seated.