Howmet Aerospace slides 7.5% after SpaceX announces in-house turbine production

Howmet Aerospace had its worst day in over a year after Elon Musk casually dropped a bombshell on X: SpaceX is building its own foundry to cast turbine blades. Shares of HWM fell 7.5% on August 31, closing at $244.95, the steepest single-session decline since April 2025.

Wall Street’s verdict? Overreaction. Two major banks are calling the dip a buying opportunity, arguing that SpaceX’s turbine ambitions are years away from actually denting Howmet’s business.

What Musk actually said

On August 30, Musk announced that SpaceX is setting up a dedicated foundry in Bastrop, Texas, to cast turbine blades and vanes in-house. The stated goal is to break the production bottleneck that currently plagues turbine casting. Musk claimed the move could shave up to 18 months off the deployment timeline for natural-gas turbines. The intended application is powering AI data centers, with SpaceX eyeing roughly 20 GW of energy capacity for its projects.

Why the market panicked

Howmet Aerospace is one of the world’s premier manufacturers of high-temperature turbine airfoils, the precision-engineered blades that sit inside jet engines and industrial gas turbines. The company operates in an extremely concentrated market: four global players control an estimated 70-80% of this specialized sector.

The turbine blade casting market generated roughly $10 billion in sales in 2025, according to Jefferies.

What the analysts are saying

Jefferies was among the first to push back on the selloff. The firm argued that SpaceX would need approximately four years before it could achieve meaningful output in turbine blade production.

Bernstein went further. The firm not only maintained its Outperform rating on Howmet but actually raised its price target from $248 to $328. That revised target implies significant upside from the post-selloff close of $244.95.

Bernstein’s bull case rests on two pillars. First, Howmet has long-term supply agreements that extend through 2030, providing revenue visibility that a new competitor can’t disrupt overnight. Second, the company has been actively expanding its own capacity, with blade production expected to increase by up to 38% compared to Q1 2025 levels.

SpaceX’s real play

There’s an important distinction that got lost in the selloff. SpaceX’s foundry appears designed primarily to serve its own internal energy needs rather than to become a merchant supplier competing for Howmet’s customers. Musk’s 20 GW ambition is about securing power for SpaceX’s own operations and data center projects.

What to watch from here

For Howmet shareholders, the next few quarters will be about execution. The company needs to deliver on its 38% capacity expansion while maintaining the quality and margins that have made it a Wall Street favorite.

Investors looking at Howmet’s post-selloff price should weigh two competing timelines: SpaceX’s projected four-year ramp to meaningful output versus Howmet’s contracted revenue through 2030. If Bernstein’s $328 target proves accurate, buying at $244.95 would represent roughly 34% upside.