The IDF hit over 20 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, testing ongoing ceasefire conditions. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sits at 100% YES.

The strikes targeted Hezbollah supply lines and military infrastructure in the Beqaa Valley, consistent with Israel’s effort to degrade the group’s strategic capabilities. The April 30 market is also at 100% YES with 6 days left. The Trump Endorsement of Israeli Ceasefire market is at 100% YES, though continued hostilities could deter Trump’s endorsement. The Israel Suspension of Lebanon Offensive market sits at 100% YES for April 30.

All four markets show $0 in face value traded. Zero volume means there is no active trader engagement, and a single large order could move odds significantly given how thin these books are.

At 100%, YES shares in the ceasefire markets are priced as certainties, yet the IDF is actively striking targets inside Lebanon. That disconnect makes these markets worth watching. Any official ceasefire announcement from Netanyahu or a formal Hezbollah response would directly change probabilities. Traders should also track IDF statements on the scope of military operations, since an escalation or drawdown would be the clearest signal of where odds should move.

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