Intel shares could hit $200 in two years, says Melius Research analyst

Intel’s comeback story has been one of the most dramatic narratives in tech this year. Now, Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes is arguing the best part hasn’t even happened yet, pegging a potential $200 valuation within two years based on a breakdown of the chipmaker’s individual business lines.

Reitzes reiterated his Buy rating and $165 price target for Intel on September 16, noting that his sum-of-the-parts analysis shows meaningful upside beyond even that level. The $165 target itself represents a 15-20% discount to the $200 figure he considers feasible.

The math behind the bullishness

The core of Reitzes’ thesis rests on two pillars: Intel’s product operations and its foundry business. Each segment, he estimates, could be worth more than $80 per share on its own.

Intel shares have already surged roughly 160-163% year-to-date through mid-September 2026. But Reitzes is arguing the market still hasn’t fully priced in the foundry unit’s potential, particularly as AI demand continues to pressure global semiconductor supply chains and governments scramble for manufacturing sovereignty.

Intel recently announced a $20 billion equity raise priced at $95 per share to fund its long-term roadmap. Reitzes views it as a signal of management’s confidence in returns from advanced manufacturing investments, and the spending plans call for a significant boost in capital expenditure for 2027 compared to 2026 levels.

SK Hynix enters the picture

The same day Reitzes published his analysis, SK Hynix, the South Korean memory chip giant, was reported to be exploring options to manufacture memory chips in the US, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM). One option under consideration involves Intel’s planned Ohio facility, potentially through a leasing arrangement or joint venture. The discussions are still preliminary, with no finalized agreement in place. But the mere possibility was enough to push Intel shares higher on the day.

HBM has become one of the most sought-after components in the semiconductor world. It’s the memory that sits inside Nvidia’s data center GPUs, and demand has far outstripped supply as companies race to build AI infrastructure. If SK Hynix were to produce HBM at an Intel-operated fab in Ohio, it would represent a significant validation of Intel’s foundry-as-a-service model.

For investors watching this space, the SK Hynix discussions may be the most important near-term catalyst. A formal partnership would provide tangible evidence that major chipmakers view Intel’s foundry as a viable manufacturing option. Until deals like that materialize, the gap between Reitzes’ $165 target and his $200 scenario remains exactly that: a gap between what the market believes today and what Intel needs to prove tomorrow.