Iran managed to sell a combined $18 billion worth of crude oil across both its active war with Israel and the subsequent ceasefire period. The breakdown: $11.5 billion in sales during the war phase, and another $6.5 billion during the ceasefire.

How Iran kept the oil flowing

In March 2026 alone, Iran exported approximately 35.7 million barrels of crude, valued at around $3.63 billion. Year-to-date through the conflict period, total exports reached roughly 145.7 million barrels, generating approximately $11.2 billion in revenue despite active wartime disruptions.

During the early war months of February and March, daily revenues reached approximately $115 million to $139 million. Higher oil prices, which surged to $100 to $120 per barrel amid the fighting, partially compensated for reduced volumes.

The US naval blockade eventually took a real bite. By May 2026, Iranian exports had been squeezed below 300,000 barrels per day, leading to an estimated $6 billion revenue shortfall.

Once the blockade eased following ceasefire negotiations, Iran ramped exports back to over 40 to 50 million barrels within roughly two weeks. The mechanism was Iran’s shadow fleet, a network of aging tankers that transfer crude at sea, obscure vessel tracking data, and deliver directly to willing buyers. China was the primary destination.

Post-blockade shipments commanded a roughly 20% premium over benchmark prices.

The sanctions enforcement gap

The Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted not just Iranian exports but global shipping through one of the world’s most critical chokepoints, creating exactly the kind of price environment that rewarded whoever could get crude to market. The subsequent price crash after the ceasefire further illustrates the whiplash that geopolitical disruptions create in energy markets.

What this means for markets and macro

The swing from $100-plus oil during the conflict to significantly lower levels post-ceasefire represents the kind of binary outcome that affects leveraged positions in either direction. Iran’s premium pricing on post-blockade exports suggests that supply disruptions create pricing power for the very actors causing the disruption.

No evidence has emerged linking Iran’s 2026 oil sales to crypto or blockchain-based settlement systems. Transactions appear to have been conducted through traditional channels, likely involving Chinese yuan-denominated payments and intermediary banks willing to handle sanctioned trade.