Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, threatens US blockade response

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf declared Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to restrict passage if the U.S. blockade continues. The market for Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by May 31 sits at 82% YES, down from 90% yesterday.

The Trump Hormuz Blockade Announcement market dropped sharply in the near-term contracts. The April 19 sub-market crashed from 28% to 8% YES with one day left, a 20-point drop in a single session. Traders are pricing in almost no chance of immediate resolution.

The UK warships through the Strait of Hormuz market fell to 8.5% YES from 12% yesterday. Only 12 days remain for potential UK action, and the increased confrontation risk makes transit less likely.

The ships transit market for April 13–19 remains near zero odds of fewer than 10 ships transiting, consistent with already minimal traffic under the blockade and Iran’s asserted control.

Volume across these markets is $29,602 in the last 24 hours. A $1,419 order can move the May 31 market 5 points, while just $304 moves the UK warship market. The UK market is thin enough to be pushed around by a single trader; the broader blockade market is not.

Ghalibaf’s statement is a direct escalation that makes a quick resolution harder to imagine. At 22¢, a YES share for the blockade lift by April 19 pays $1, a 4.5x return. That bet requires a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough within 24 hours.

Watch for any shift in Trump’s public statements or signals from the Iranian Foreign Ministry. A surprise diplomatic move could reprice these contracts fast.

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