The ongoing Iran conflict is hitting China’s economy, with car sales and factory operations suffering. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 0.4% YES.

Market reaction

Oil supply disruptions from the conflict have kept prices elevated, but the crude oil all-time high market is flat at 0.4% YES, down from 2% a day ago. Traders are not pricing in a spike past the all-time high despite economic strain on China. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM when odds briefly hit 4%.

The US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026 market sits at 7.5% YES, down slightly from 8% a day ago. The lack of movement suggests traders are not pricing in further military escalation even as the conflict’s economic effects spread.

Why it matters

The crude oil market saw $2,513 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with face value volume of $100,828. The market is thin: just $695 would shift the odds by 5 percentage points. Any meaningful price movement could come from relatively small trades.

What to watch

The economic damage in China has not translated into a shift in market probabilities. A YES share at 0.4¢ in the crude oil market pays $1 if prices hit an all-time high by April 30, a theoretical 250x return, but traders remain skeptical at current odds. Watch for OPEC+ announcements or developments involving the Strait of Hormuz, as either could move oil prices and these markets.

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