Iran defends at UN as Trump reviews war-ending proposal without nuclear deal

Iran is defending its position at the UN while Trump reviews a proposal to end the war without a nuclear agreement. The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 7% just 24 hours ago.

The proposal affects several prediction markets. The odds for Iranian regime fall by June 30 are at 7.5% YES, slightly down from 8% yesterday. Resolving the conflict without addressing nuclear issues could stabilize the regime temporarily. The market for US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 has dropped to 1%, meaning traders see almost no chance of a last-minute agreement.

The US-Iran nuclear deal market has $107,556 in face value, with $7,699 in actual USDC traded. Order book depth is $1,550 to move the price 5 percentage points, a thin market sensitive to large orders. The drop in odds matches Trump’s apparent dissatisfaction with the proposal. A single 4-point spike to 12% at 3:50 PM yesterday was the largest move, likely a reaction to initial rumors of the proposal.

This proposal could de-escalate tensions without regime change, but it leaves the nuclear issue unresolved, a sticking point for US hawks like Rubio. If accepted, the regime’s odds of falling by June 30 may decrease further. At 7.5%, a YES share pays $1, a 13.3x return, but that bet requires believing Iran’s internal stability will deteriorate rapidly in the next two months.

Watch for Trump’s next statements on the proposal and any shifts from Marco Rubio. The nuclear deal market’s April 30 deadline is days away, leaving almost no room for a diplomatic breakthrough.