Iran drone attacks close Strait of Hormuz, doubling Dutch TTF gas prices

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by Iranian drone attacks, has intensified Europe’s energy crisis. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 sit at 12.5% YES, down from 32% just 24 hours ago.

The Strait of Hormuz is now closed, and Qatari LNG production is suspended. Dutch TTF gas prices have doubled to €60/MWh. European gas storage is at 31%, raising fears of stagflation or recession, particularly in Germany and Italy. Europe’s attempt to pivot away from Russian LNG dependency faces a direct test, and the EU’s responses so far (electricity tax cuts, renewable incentives) are reactive measures against what could be a prolonged supply disruption.

The sharp drop in April 30 ceasefire odds shows traders betting against a quick diplomatic resolution. Daily trading volume is $213,788, with $68,607 in actual USDC exchanged. Order book depth is thin: it takes just $4,074 to move the price by 5 percentage points. Yesterday, a single trade pushed the market from 28% to 32%, illustrating how little liquidity separates large price swings.

New military strikes or further escalation would likely push odds lower still. At 12.5¢, buying YES shares is a bet on a swift diplomatic turnaround. For that bet to pay off, there would need to be immediate and substantive diplomatic moves, whether intermediary activity by Oman or Qatar, or significant de-escalation from Trump or Iran’s leadership.

Watch for CENTCOM statements and potential Iranian retaliations. Any softening of rhetoric or confirmation of resumed talks could shift the market.