Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. ends its blockade on Iranian ports. The market for Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 sits at 56.5%, down from 72% yesterday.

## Market reaction

The offer aims to break the current stalemate, but traders are skeptical. Odds on Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 have fallen from 90% over the past week to the current 56.5%. Iran’s internal divides and Trump’s unpredictable responses both weigh on trader confidence in the proposal.

The US Blockade of Hormuz market dropped from 72% yesterday. The largest movement was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM, a quick reaction to sudden developments. Order book depth is $8,975, meaning single large orders can move the price significantly.

## Why it matters

Iran’s proposal does not address nuclear talks, which remain a key sticking point. Without progress on that front, the blockade’s end is far from certain, even with a conditional offer on the table.

## What to watch

At 56.5%, buying YES at 56¢ pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade, a 1.77x return. Watch for Trump’s communications and any announcements from U.S. Navy leadership or Iranian state media. These will shape whether the market continues to slide or reverses.

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