Iranian group threatens Trump family amid domestic unrest

A suspected Iranian front group, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia, has threatened violence against the Trump family. The threat comes as Iran faces domestic unrest, with the regime fall by June 30 market now at 8.5% YES, up from 7% a day ago.

The April 30 market sits at 0.7% YES, down from 1% a day ago, meaning traders see almost no chance of immediate collapse. The June 30 market is at 8.5% YES. The 8-point gap between April and June term structures suggests traders expect something material to happen in the intervening months.

Actual USDC trading volume in these markets is $21,445 over the past 24 hours, against a face value of $1,456,242. Order book depth shows it takes $34,760 to move the April market 5 points, which points to institutional participation. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike in the June market, likely from incremental trading rather than a single large order.

For traders, a YES share on the June 30 market pays $1 if the regime falls, a potential 11.76x return at current prices. The threat against the Trump family adds another variable to an already tense situation involving widespread protests and international pressure on Tehran.

Watch for unexpected moves by the IRGC, the Assembly of Experts, or significant public appearances by figures like Mojtaba Khamenei. Any of these could move the odds quickly.

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