Iranian talks with Pakistan exclude US, signaling continued distrust

Iranian negotiators will talk with a Pakistani delegation this Friday, excluding US representatives. The market for the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting on April 24 is at 1.1% YES.

Market reaction

The next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location market for no qualifying meeting by June 30, 2026 is now at 7.1% YES, down from 9% just 24 hours ago. Traders are losing confidence that a meeting will be confirmed by June 30. The market has only $167 needed to move the price five points, making it vulnerable to large single trades.

In the US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates market, April 26 odds climbed to 25.9% YES from 9% a day ago. This suggests traders expect any US-Iran meeting to happen after the current mediation with Pakistan concludes. The April 25 sub-market also spiked to 8.0% YES.

Why it matters

Iran’s refusal to meet US envoys while choosing to talk with Pakistan signals continued distrust. This makes imminent US-Iran talks less likely. At 1.1¢, a YES share for an April 24 meeting pays 90x, but the probability is extremely low absent a sudden diplomatic reversal.

What to watch

Traders should monitor any announcements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during his visit to Oman following the Pakistani talks. Any signal of renewed US-Iran engagement could move these markets quickly.

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