Iran’s leadership resists US, Israel pressure under new Supreme Leader

Under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s leadership has resisted pressure from the US and Israel. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is at 10.5% YES, up slightly from 8% yesterday.

The market for the Iranian regime to fall by June 30 ticked up modestly but remains low overall. With 79 days left, traders appear cautious, likely because the hard-line leadership has effectively consolidated power. Iran’s government retains control of its institutional infrastructure despite external pressures. The market’s largest movement was a 1-point spike, indicating limited volatility.

Daily USDC trading volume is at $85,435, giving the market decent liquidity. Moving the odds by five points requires $27,572, meaning a single large order can’t easily swing the price. The current odds look like a consensus view of regime stability rather than speculative noise.

The WSJ, as a tier-1 source, reinforces the assessment that Iran’s leadership is durable. Mojtaba Khamenei, alongside key IRGC figures, appears to have solidified control. For traders, a YES bet at 10.5¢ pays $1 if the regime collapses by June 30, a 9.52x return. But given the current data, that bet requires strong conviction in some unforeseen catalyst.

Watch for signs of internal fractures or significant protests. Movements by the Assembly of Experts or visible IRGC dissent could shift the odds. A significant military defeat for Iran or unexpected US diplomatic maneuvers could also change the calculus.

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