Israel’s attorney-general challenges justice minister’s judicial plan

Israel’s Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara argues Justice Minister Yariv Levin’s partial plan doesn’t resolve the High Court case. Netanyahu out by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES.

Market reaction

The conflict over Levin’s refusal to convene the Judicial Selection Committee has sharpened tensions between the judiciary and Netanyahu’s coalition. The June 30 market is at 5.5% YES, down from 6% a day ago. The April 30 market sits at 0.1% YES with only 6 days left.

Why it matters

The spread between April 30 and June 30 tells you traders see any potential catalyst arriving in the next two months, not sooner. $9,495 is needed to move the June market 5 points, which points to a reasonably deep order book. Trading volume was $1,762 in actual USDC over the past 24 hours. The 1-point drop overnight shows traders pulling back slightly.

The Attorney-General’s rejection of Levin’s partial plan is a direct challenge to the coalition’s approach to judicial appointments. At 5.5¢, a YES share for June 30 pays $1 if Netanyahu is out, a 18x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a serious political rupture within 67 days.

What to watch

Further High Court rulings on the Judicial Selection Committee standoff. Baharav-Miara’s position suggests more judicial pushback is likely. Any defection from coalition partners would move these odds fast.

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