JPMorgan says Bitcoin has more upside than gold, and short sellers are the reason

JPMorgan’s latest research note makes a case that might surprise the gold bugs: Bitcoin has more room to run than the yellow metal right now, and the reasoning has less to do with crypto enthusiasm than with cold, structural market mechanics.

The bank’s analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, published a report on September 16 arguing that Bitcoin’s upside advantage comes down to two factors. First, Bitcoin ETFs have recaptured far less of their 2026 outflows compared to gold ETFs. Second, and more importantly, the short interest piled up against BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is creating the conditions for a potential squeeze that gold simply doesn’t have.

The short interest gap tells the story

The core of JPMorgan’s argument hinges on positioning data. IBIT’s short interest is sitting near its 2026 highs, meaning a significant number of traders are betting against the fund or using it as a hedge. Meanwhile, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has short interest that’s actually below its historical average.

The put-to-call open interest ratio for IBIT also remains elevated compared to GLD. In plain terms, options traders are paying up for downside protection on Bitcoin at a rate they simply aren’t for gold. That hedging demand creates an asymmetry: if fear subsides and those protective positions get unwound, the resulting flow benefits Bitcoin disproportionately.

JPMorgan’s analysts frame this as a mechanical advantage rather than a directional bet. They’re not saying Bitcoin is fundamentally better than gold. They’re saying the positioning around Bitcoin ETFs has created a tighter coil.

ETF flows reveal the imbalance

Since late July 2026, both gold and Bitcoin ETFs have seen meaningful inflows. But the recovery hasn’t been symmetric.

Gold ETFs have fully recovered all of their earlier 2026 outflows. Bitcoin ETFs, on the other hand, have only recaptured about 50% of theirs.

This is the first time JPMorgan’s analysis has focused specifically on ETF dynamics as a lens for comparing Bitcoin and gold’s relative upside potential. Previous reports from the bank have used volatility-adjusted metrics and broader flow analysis, but drilling into the put-to-call ratios and short interest of specific ETF products represents a new angle in the bank’s ongoing research.

What the report doesn’t say

Notably, JPMorgan’s report does not include new price targets for either Bitcoin or gold. The analysis is about relative positioning, not absolute levels. Panigirtzoglou and his team are describing market structure, not making a moonshot forecast.

No competing analysis from other major Wall Street institutions was reported alongside the JPMorgan note.