Kalshi traders predict US added over 90,000 jobs in September

With the Bureau of Labor Statistics set to publish its September nonfarm payrolls report on October 2, prediction market traders on Kalshi are placing modest but meaningful bets that the US economy added more than 90,000 jobs last month. The platform’s “Above 90,000” contract is currently priced at 60 cents, implying a 56% probability that the figure lands north of that mark.

What the contracts are saying

Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market, lets traders buy and sell contracts pegged to official government data releases. In this case, participants can wager on whether September payrolls will exceed specific thresholds: 90,000, 100,000, or 125,000 jobs added.

Trading volume on September payroll contracts has hit roughly $119,000. Economist forecasts broadly align with the prediction market’s lean. Consensus estimates for September job additions range from approximately 84,000 to 95,000. That puts the 90,000 line right in the middle of the distribution, which explains why the contract is priced close to a coin flip rather than a decisive bet in either direction.

August’s nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000, a solid number that followed a notably weak July.

Why prediction markets matter for jobs data

Kalshi also offers contracts on the unemployment rate (the U-3 measure) and various combination bets that pair payroll numbers with jobless claims outcomes.

The macro stakes

The September jobs report arrives at a delicate moment for the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus. A print above 90,000 but below the August figure of 162,000 would likely reinforce the narrative of gradual normalization. If payrolls come in well below 84,000, the lower end of economist estimates, traders would likely start pricing in more aggressive rate cuts. A surprise to the upside, above 125,000, could push rate-cut expectations further out on the calendar.

The report drops at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 2.