Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination advances as Powell investigation ends

The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve after U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro closed a criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Warsh’s confirmation by May 1 sits at 2% YES, while May 15 is at 85%.

Warsh’s path cleared after Pirro ended the Powell investigation. The May 15 market jumped from 29% to 85% YES on news of the committee advancement, a 56-point swing showing strong trader confidence in near-term confirmation here. The May 1 contract, by contrast, hovers at 2%, with traders clearly skeptical about that tight a timeline.

The largest single move was a 20-point jump in the May 15 market following the committee vote. Traders appear to expect confirmation well before mid-May now that the Powell investigation is resolved. June 30 sits at 95.2% YES, near-universal confidence that Warsh will be confirmed by then.

Daily trading volume hit $17,756 in USDC for the May 15 market. It costs $1,590 to move the odds 5 percentage points, a relatively thick order book that points to large trader participation.

Warsh’s likely confirmation would change Fed leadership and could shift monetary policy direction. Warsh is expected to take a more hawkish stance than Powell. At 2%, a YES share for May 1 offers a large payout, but the realistic bet is on May 15 or later.

Watch for the Senate’s full vote scheduling and statements from senators like Thom Tillis or Elizabeth Warren. Their positions will directly affect Warsh’s confirmation timing.

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