Kimmeridge warns nearly half of US data centers face delays amid growing political backlash

Nearly half of the data centers proposed across the United States are at risk of being delayed or scrapped entirely, according to Kimmeridge Energy Management Co. The investment firm’s warning lands at a moment when the gap between AI ambitions and physical infrastructure reality is becoming impossible to ignore.

Kimmeridge managing partner Ben Dell laid out the case on August 26, pointing to a cocktail of political resistance, permitting gridlock, and construction challenges that threaten to slow the buildout that tech companies have been banking on.

The numbers behind the slowdown

Dell estimated that data centers could add 5 to 10 billion cubic feet per day to projected US natural gas demand growth, which already sits at roughly 30 Bcf/d, largely driven by LNG exports. If project delays pile up, AI-related demand could settle at the lower end of that range.

The scale of disruption is already substantial. Community opposition has contributed to at least $170 billion worth of data center projects being delayed or cancelled between January 2024 and May 2026.

Roughly 70% of Americans oppose new data centers being built in their local areas, according to Gallup. More than 500 US jurisdictions have implemented some form of restrictions or limits on data center development. New York went further, issuing a statewide environmental permit freeze for data centers through executive order.

Bipartisan opposition in unlikely places

What makes this trend particularly notable is where the resistance is showing up. States like Pennsylvania, Texas, and Ohio, traditionally friendly to large-scale energy and industrial projects, are seeing significant pushback against data center proposals. The opposition doesn’t neatly follow party lines, either.

Opposition to data centers has become a notable issue heading into upcoming US midterm elections, giving local and state politicians added incentive to slow-walk approvals or impose new restrictions.

What Kimmeridge is really watching

Kimmeridge’s perspective on this isn’t purely academic. The firm holds stakes in natural gas producers and in the Commonwealth LNG terminal in Louisiana, giving it direct financial exposure to how data center demand shapes the energy market.

The infrastructure bottlenecks extend beyond politics. Even projects that clear regulatory hurdles face practical challenges: power grid interconnection timelines stretching years into the future, transformer shortages, and competition for construction labor and materials. The permitting process alone can add 18 months or more to a project timeline in many jurisdictions.

Implications for energy and AI investment

For energy investors, the Kimmeridge warning introduces a meaningful variable into gas demand projections. The difference between 5 Bcf/d and 10 Bcf/d of incremental demand is enormous when multiplied across years of production planning and capital allocation.

With midterms approaching and over 500 jurisdictions already imposing limits, the regulatory environment is tightening at precisely the moment when demand projections call for rapid expansion.