Macron calls for reopening Strait of Hormuz without blockades

French President Macron has called for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened “in good order, not with blockades.” The market on whether the UK will send warships through the Strait by April 30 sits at 2% YES, down from 10% a day ago.

The UK warship deployment market now trades at 2% YES, with the drop coinciding with Macron’s diplomatic framing. The market is thin: only $917 in USDC trades daily, meaning a single $200 order can move the price five points.

The odds point to deep skepticism about UK military action before the April 30 deadline. Only seven days remain until resolution, and the term structure shows no expected movement. Macron’s call for reopening without blockades reads as diplomatic de-escalation rather than a precursor to naval deployments, which is consistent with the price collapse from 10% to 2%.

At 2¢, a YES share pays $1 if the UK deploys warships by April 30, a 50x return. That payout ratio reflects how little the market expects a deployment. Traders would need concrete signals of frigate movement to justify buying at even these prices.

Watch for announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence or confirmed frigate movements via official channels. Macron’s statement drove the odds lower, and absent a UK military response, the market will likely stay near the floor through expiration.

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