Mitsui OSK Lines expects LNG shipments through Strait of Hormuz to remain halted

One of the world’s largest shipping companies just told the global energy market to stop waiting for a return to normal. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, the Japanese shipping giant, said it does not expect LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to resume anytime soon, a statement that carries serious weight given the strait handles roughly 20% of the world’s LNG and oil flows.

Chairman Takeshi Hashimoto delivered the assessment at the Gastech conference in Bangkok on September 16, describing current conditions as making LNG shipments through the strait “almost impossible.”

A bottleneck that won’t uncork

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Nearly everything that flows out of Qatar, the UAE, and other Gulf producers has to pass through it.

Disruptions began in February 2026, when escalating clashes between the US and Iran turned the waterway into a high-risk zone. MOL CEO Jotaro Tamura said on September 3 that operations are “difficult to see resuming in any form by the end of the year,” effectively pushing market expectations for normalization well beyond 2026.

That timeline matters. Some analysts and traders had been pricing in a potential resumption by October. Tamura’s comments, followed by Hashimoto’s blunter assessment two weeks later, suggest those bets were premature.

Since April 2026, a handful of MOL-linked vessels have managed to transit the strait, but under heavily restricted conditions. Those ships used approved routes and coordinated closely with regional authorities, all while avoiding reported Iranian fees.

Japanese shippers, including MOL, have made clear they require sustained safety confirmation and explicit government guidance before restarting regular transits.

The supply scramble

When 20% of global LNG supply gets bottlenecked, buyers don’t sit around hoping for the best. Asian importers, Japan chief among them, have been pivoting hard toward alternative suppliers. The US has been the primary beneficiary, with American LNG export terminals picking up the slack that Gulf producers can no longer reliably deliver.

Spot prices for LNG in Asia have stayed elevated throughout the disruption. Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter by some measures, sits on the wrong side of the strait for its customers right now. The same goes for UAE producers.

What this means for energy markets

MOL operates one of the world’s largest fleets of LNG carriers, and its risk assessment carries signal value for the entire industry.

For Japan specifically, the stakes are high. The country remains one of the world’s largest LNG importers, and its post-Fukushima energy mix still leans heavily on natural gas for power generation. A prolonged Hormuz closure forces Japanese utilities to pay premium prices for rerouted or alternative supply.

Insurance premiums for Hormuz transits remain elevated, crew safety concerns persist, and the legal ambiguity around Iranian fee demands adds another layer of complexity.