Mojtaba Khamenei named Iran’s Supreme Leader, stabilizing regime outlook

Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader has pushed down the odds of a regime fall by May 31, with the market now at 3.4% YES, down from 5% a day ago.

The leadership transition consolidates IRGC control, reducing expectations of imminent collapse. The Iran leadership change by December 31 market is at 41.5% YES, up from 39% yesterday. The leadership change by May 31 market is at 15.5% YES.

Daily volume is $37,360 in USDC. The market is thin: just $7,057 moves prices by 5 points. A 2-point spike in May 31 odds hit at 6:20 PM, showing how quickly trader sentiment reacts to any hint of instability.

At 3¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by May 31, a 33x return. Taking that bet means expecting a major destabilizing event within 37 days, which the succession appears to have made less likely.

Watch for IRGC defections or Assembly of Experts announcements. Either could shift these odds quickly.