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Morgan Stanley predicts 43% surge for Robinhood without crypto support
The brokerage giant's upgrade to overweight hinges on prediction markets, retirement products, and a growing user base rather than digital asset trading
Morgan Stanley just handed Robinhood its biggest Wall Street endorsement in months, upgrading the stock to Overweight and slapping a $150 price target on it. The kicker: crypto trading volumes barely factored into the thesis.
The upgrade, issued on September 1, represents a potential 43% upside from Robinhood’s Monday closing price of $105. Analyst Michael J. Cyprys led the call, bumping the target from $124 to $150.
The non-crypto growth engine
Revenue from prediction markets and event contracts hit $156 million in Q2 2026. To appreciate how fast that business is growing, consider that the same category generated just $10 million a year earlier. That’s a roughly 15x increase with fewer than 2 million users participating.
Morgan Stanley’s earnings-per-share forecasts project EPS growth of 12%, 14%, and 15% over the next three years. The platform’s user base now sits at around 28 million, and the company has been expanding its product offerings to include retirement accounts, credit cards, and a derivatives trading platform.
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Why crypto took a back seat
Morgan Stanley issued its bullish call despite lower expectations for cryptocurrency trading volumes on the platform. Asset-based revenues, active trader monetization, and the explosion of event contracts are filling the gap that crypto trading once occupied.
Prediction markets as the new growth frontier
The standout data point in the upgrade is the prediction markets revenue figure. Going from $10 million to $156 million in a single year, with fewer than 2 million users currently engaging with event contracts, suggests significant room to grow across Robinhood’s 28-million-user base.
What investors are watching
The move from Equal Weight to Overweight is Morgan Stanley telling its clients that Robinhood should outperform its sector peers over the next 12 to 18 months. In July 2026, Morgan Stanley had previously upgraded its target for Robinhood to $124 from $95, recognizing the momentum building around its prediction markets.