MPs to vote on inquiry into Starmer’s handling of Mandelson appointment

MPs are set to vote on whether to launch an inquiry into PM Keir Starmer’s handling of Peter Mandelson’s appointment. The market predicting Starmer’s exit by December 31, 2026, is at 68% YES, up from 66% a week ago.

The inquiry vote is directly tied to the Starmer out by December 31, 2026 market. The move to 68% YES reflects growing pressure on Starmer’s leadership. The June 30, 2026 market sits at 39.5% YES, down from 41% 24 hours ago. Traders appear to expect any fallout to play out over a longer timeline.

Market liquidity in the Starmer out timing predictions is decent, with $29,563 in actual USDC traded daily. The order book shows $998 is needed to move prices 5 points, suggesting moderate interest. A 3-point spike occurred at 4:07 PM, likely triggered by the inquiry vote news.

The vote is a concrete escalation in Starmer’s political troubles, functioning as a confidence test that could change leadership dynamics if it progresses. At 68¢, a YES share pays $1 if he exits by year-end, a 1.47x return. For this bet to pay off, the inquiry would need to inflict real political damage.

Watch for the outcome of the Commons vote and any subsequent statements from key Labour figures. A shift in party support could sharply move Starmer’s tenure odds.

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