Netanyahu announces 10-day Lebanon ceasefire, excludes Hezbollah

Trump says he has “nothing against the Pope,” signaling a conciliatory shift. The odds of Trump posting profanity on Truth Social this week sit at 5% YES, a 5-point decrease.

Netanyahu’s announcement of a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon, despite excluding Hezbollah, has moved the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market. The odds for a ceasefire by April 30 have surged to 99.6% YES, up from 45% a week ago. The June 30 market also jumped, now at 99.6% YES, up from 67%.

The Trump profanity market has seen little action, with no significant trades in the past 24 hours. Trump’s softer stance toward the Pope, amid his brokered ceasefire, may reduce the likelihood of incendiary posts. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market is active, with volume at $1,205,891 in actual USDC. A 13-point spike was observed at 1:16 PM, driven by large orders.

Trump’s conciliatory tone toward the Pope could be an attempt to mollify domestic opposition to his Middle East strategy. At 5¢, a YES share in the profanity market pays $1 if Trump does post, a 20x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe Trump’s restraint won’t last.

Watch for any upcoming statements from the Vatican or shifts in Trump’s social media activity. Changes in language or tone on either side could move these markets.

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