NVIDIA’s shares have extended a 5% gain, and the odds of NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on April 30 sit at 99.6% YES.
The April 30 market holds at 99.6% YES, up slightly from 99% yesterday. Daily actual USDC volume is $44,709, with $212,983 needed to move the price by 5 points. NVIDIA’s recent fiscal results and the share price bump support its position, though broader volatility from the Iran conflict remains a factor.
The June 30 market has NVIDIA’s chances at 89.5% YES, up from 84% a week ago, on $4,131 in daily USDC volume. The gap between the April and June contracts (99.6% vs. 89.5%) prices in roughly a 10% chance that a competitor overtakes NVIDIA over those two months. Geopolitical tensions are the most obvious catalyst for that scenario.
At 90¢, a YES share on the June contract pays $1 if NVIDIA tops the market cap ranking by June 30, a 1.11x return. That payout assumes geopolitical tensions won’t push tech sector valuations down enough for Apple or Microsoft to retake the lead.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on April 28-29 is the next scheduled event likely to affect these contracts. Any Fed policy shifts tied to the Iran conflict or oil price moves would feed directly into NVIDIA’s market cap odds.
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