Nvidia stock hits new all-time high amid market cap speculation

Nvidia’s stock has reached a new all-time high. The Polymarket contract on Nvidia being the largest company by market cap on June 30 is at 92.5% YES, up from 90% a day ago.

The rise in Nvidia’s stock price has pushed odds higher on markets tied to its future ranking. The largest company by June 30 market remains stable with high odds, while the second-largest company by April 30 market sits at 0.1% YES. With only six days until resolution, traders are pricing in almost no chance of Nvidia jumping to second place by then.

Trading activity across Nvidia markets is moderate, with $16,712 USDC traded in the last 24 hours. The largest company market has a thick order book: it would take $42,558 to move odds by five percentage points.

Nvidia’s stock surge is a positive signal for the June 30 contract but doesn’t change the near-term picture for the April 30 market. U.S.-Iran tensions and the forthcoming FOMC meeting could affect tech stock valuations broadly. For contrarian traders, a YES share in the second-largest market at 0.1% pays $1 on resolution, a potential 1,000x return, but requires a dramatic shift in Nvidia’s market cap ranking within six days.

Watch for Nvidia’s Q2 earnings report and any announcements on AI contracts or large-scale GPU deals. Either could move these markets significantly.

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