Five months of military conflict between the US and Iran have produced exactly the kind of oil market chaos you’d expect, followed by something you wouldn’t: relative calm. Brent crude, which rocketed from roughly $71 to somewhere between $100 and $120 per barrel after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed in early March, has since retreated to the $75-$83 range.

That’s a remarkable correction for a commodity tied to a waterway responsible for roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, or about 20 million barrels per day.

How the conflict moved oil markets

Here’s the timeline. US and Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian targets in late February 2026. Brent crude jumped more than 8% almost immediately. Then Iran escalated dramatically on March 4, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to traffic.

Prices predictably surged past $100 per barrel. Some estimates put the peak closer to $120. The US responded by implementing political risk insurance for maritime trade through the region, essentially backstopping shippers willing to navigate contested waters.

By mid-June, a ceasefire framework emerged. The Strait reopened. Iranian oil exports resumed, and discussions around temporarily lifting Iran’s oil sanctions gained traction. Brent crude fell back toward $75-$83, a range that would have looked perfectly normal six months ago.

Then hostilities resumed in early July. Prices briefly spiked above $75 again but didn’t come close to the March highs.

The crypto hedge that wasn’t

Throughout five months of active military conflict involving a nuclear-capable regional power and the world’s dominant military force, crypto markets barely registered as part of the conversation. No surge in Bitcoin as a safe haven. No narrative about decentralized assets protecting wealth during geopolitical turmoil. Major news coverage of the conflict contained no references to crypto assets or tokens whatsoever.

What this means for investors

Analysts tracking the conflict noted that oil prices responded most violently to the initial shocks, specifically the February strikes and the March closure. By the time hostilities resumed in July, the same type of news produced a fraction of the market reaction.

For crypto-focused portfolios, the takeaway isn’t that digital assets are useless during geopolitical crises. It’s that their correlation to these events is unpredictable and often nonexistent. If you’re holding Bitcoin specifically because you believe it will protect you when the world gets messy, the last five months suggest you should stress-test that assumption.