Oil set for second weekly rise amid US-Iran tensions affecting supply

Oil prices are on track for a second consecutive weekly increase, driven by ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran that are affecting supply lines. The geopolitical risk factor has contributed to maintaining a premium in the oil market, with Brent crude between $91.8 and $93.8 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $84.2 to $88.3 per barrel. Brent crude has seen a 0.9% rise over the past month, illustrating the market’s focus on potential supply disruptions. This is consistent with the market’s reaction to geopolitical risks, as the possibility of further instability could continue to impact oil prices.

Key Takeaways

• Market pricing suggests that the ongoing US-Iran tensions are consistent with support for elevated oil prices.
• The likelihood of oil reaching a new all-time high by the end of September remains low, with current odds at 3%.
• The December 31 market shows a higher probability of a new high, currently priced at 14% YES, indicating market participants see potential catalysts in the coming months.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor developments in US-Iran relations, as any escalation or de-escalation could significantly impact oil prices. Key figures such as Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo of OPEC and Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, may provide insights or policy changes affecting market dynamics. Additionally, any new geopolitical developments or economic sanctions affecting oil supply could alter current market expectations. Watch for updates that could either support or deter the probability of oil reaching new peaks.