Pantera Capital notes Bitcoin positioning shifts from short to long after 10-month consolidation

Bitcoin spent the better part of a year going sideways (and mostly down). Now, according to one of crypto’s largest investment firms, the tide is turning.

Pantera Capital portfolio manager Cosmo Jiang said in an August 21 interview that traders and funds are actively rotating from net short positions, or sitting on the sidelines entirely, to building long exposure. The catalyst: Bitcoin’s decisive break above its 200-day moving average near $69K, following a roughly 50% decline from its October 2025 peak of around $126K.

The numbers behind the reversal

Bitcoin rallied more than 23% in the week leading up to Jiang’s comments, closing near $77,400. Intraday prices touched above $79K at their peak.

Jiang pointed to favorable US regulatory developments and announcements around increased Treasury bond buybacks as the proximate triggers.

Pantera, which manages roughly $3.8B in assets, identified approximately $80K as the next meaningful resistance level.

What drove the 10-month slump

Bitcoin peaked near $126K in October 2025, then spent nearly ten months grinding lower. By the time Bitcoin was trading around $69K, a lot of professional capital had either gone short or simply walked away.

The fundamental case beneath the charts

Jiang highlighted several structural trends that he believes make it increasingly difficult for investors to stay bearish on crypto.

Stablecoin adoption was at the top of the list. The total supply and daily transaction volume of stablecoins have continued to grow even during the drawdown, suggesting that real economic activity on blockchain rails is expanding regardless of Bitcoin’s price.

Prediction markets were another pillar. Platforms built on crypto infrastructure have attracted significant user bases and volume, demonstrating product-market fit that extends well beyond speculation on token prices.

The growth of perpetual futures, the dominant trading instrument in crypto, signals deepening market infrastructure. And the integration of AI technologies into crypto applications is opening new use cases that weren’t on anyone’s roadmap two years ago.