More than 150 Polymarket wallets flagged for possible military insider trading
Anti-corruption researchers flagged 152 wallets with a 97.2% win rate on long-shot military bets, raising serious questions about classified intelligence leaking onto public blockchains
A new analysis from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective has identified 152 wallets on Polymarket International that appear to have traded on classified US military information, collectively raking in $8 million in profits with a 97.2% success rate on long-shot wagers.
The wallets, dubbed “Orca” accounts by researchers for their focused, predatory betting strategies, achieved a 97.2% success rate on long-shot wagers. The analysis defined qualifying bets as wagers of at least $2,500 placed on outcomes with a 35% probability or lower.
The Orca problem
ACDC’s research, published on August 20, covered all settled Polymarket markets through May 5, 2026, casting a wide net across the platform’s military and defense betting categories. The group found that dozens of the 152 Orca wallets had never been flagged before, meaning they operated under the radar while consistently nailing outcomes that, by definition, most traders got wrong.
The findings also spotlight a secondary risk: copycat trading. Because Polymarket runs on a public blockchain, anyone monitoring on-chain activity can see when large, unusual bets appear. ACDC found evidence that other market participants did exactly that.
Before Iran-related military strikes in 2025, a bot wagered $200,000 and a separate whale placed $100,000, both apparently tailing Orca wallet positions before the events became public.
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A pattern with precedent
In April 2026, US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged after profiting $400,000 by trading on classified information he accessed through his military role. Notably, Van Dyke is not among the 152 Orca wallets identified in the ACDC analysis.
Polymarket has said it is committed to monitoring suspicious accounts and engaging with authorities. The organization declined to comment on the specifics of the ACDC report.
ACDC’s recommendations include implementing identity verification for traders and withholding payouts on trades flagged as dubious.