Prediction markets capture 27% of World Cup sports betting, Bloomberg reports
Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood-backed Rothera are rewriting the sports betting rulebook, one FIFA match at a time
The 2026 FIFA World Cup was always going to be a massive betting event. According to a Bloomberg report published July 19, 2026, prediction markets now account for 27% of U.S. legal sports betting volume tied to the World Cup. That is nearly a third of the market, carved out by platforms that barely registered in the mainstream sports betting conversation two years ago.
The total projected betting volume across both traditional sportsbooks and prediction platforms sits at $10 billion for the tournament. Traditional sportsbooks are expected to handle roughly $4 billion across 104 matches.
Kalshi is doing numbers that require a second read
Kalshi has processed approximately $40 billion in sports bets since the World Cup began, with peak monthly totals exceeding $30 billion.
Robinhood-backed Rothera reported an 86% surge in average daily volume, reaching $118 million per day in July 2026. On its best days, Rothera is approaching Polymarket-level activity.
Why this World Cup is different from every one before it
The 2026 tournament is the first major global sporting event to play out after the U.S. regulatory environment shifted in 2024. That shift opened the door for prediction market platforms to operate with greater freedom in American markets.
FIFA entered a partnership with Fanatics and ADI Predictstreet specifically for the 2026 World Cup, building out betting offerings designed to compete in this new environment.
What this means for investors and the broader market
For anyone holding positions in publicly traded gaming companies, the 27% figure is worth sitting with. DraftKings and FanDuel have spent years and enormous sums of capital building their U.S. market share. Prediction markets did not exist as serious competitors when most of those customer acquisition campaigns ran.
Rothera’s 86% daily volume surge in a single month signals that the space is not yet consolidated. Multiple platforms are growing simultaneously, which suggests the overall pie is expanding rather than one player simply taking share from another.
The regulatory picture remains the key variable. The 2024 U.S. policy shift was significant, but prediction market platforms are still navigating a patchwork of state-level rules and ongoing scrutiny from financial regulators over whether these products are gambling, securities, or something else entirely.