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4h SpaceX IPO odds rise amid OpenAI’s projected $3T IPO wave
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
4h SpaceX IPO odds rise amid OpenAI’s projected $3T IPO wave
▼ SpaceX IPO timing
92% (was 94%, ▼2¢ in 4h)
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates
2 articles
Developing
6%
▲1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location 5% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 5% FLAT
✓ 216m Iran’s FM in Pakistan for talks as US envoys prepare to arrive
✓ 84h Iran’s foreign minister in Islamabad as US envoys head to region
YES ▲1¢
Crude oil all time high by april 30
2 articles
Developing
2%
▲1¢
49m Iran war disrupts supply chains, raises global medicine prices
1h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply
NO ▲1¢
Countries conducting military action against Iran
1 article
Developing
4%
▼1¢
1h US deploys F/A-18 jets to UAE amid Iran tensions, market impact unclear
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin all time high by date
1 article
Developing
10%
▼1¢
1h Bitcoin ETFs see $823M inflows this week, boosting market odds
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
10%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high by date 3% FLAT
1h BlackRock, Morgan Stanley invest $34M in Bitcoin ETFs
NO ▲1¢
Iran enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran uranium surrender 7% FLAT
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
2h Iran claims US bunker-buster bomb neutralised amid military tensions
YES ▲1¢
Third best AI model end of april
1 article
· 3h ago
97%
▲1¢
3h US warns of AI thefts by Chinese firms, impacting Alibaba AI model market
YES ▲1¢
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▲1¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 2% FLAT
3h Rising diesel costs from Iran war hit Maryland fishing industry
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin price in april
1 article
· 4h ago
10%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high by date 4% FLAT
✓ 34h Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs see $37.8M inflows amid US-Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
US escorts commercial ship through hormuz
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼1¢
✓ 24h US forces kill two narco-terrorists in Pacific drug-trafficking vessel strike
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 8% FLAT
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 2% FLAT
✓ 22h Kushner, Witkoff head to Pakistan for US-Iran peace talks restart
Likely NO
Bank of Russia decision in april
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Putin's presidency status 4% FLAT
2h Putin’s approval drops amid economic woes, internet crackdown
Likely NO
Starmer out prediction markets
1 article
· 2h ago
47%
▼0¢
⚡ Starmer out timing predictions 46% FLAT
2h Andy Burnham eyes leadership challenge as Labour’s prospects slide
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap
1 article
· 2h ago
93%
▼0¢
2h Nvidia deploys GPT-5.5 Codex to 10,000 employees, boosting AI collaboration
Likely NO
Largest company predictions for june
1 article
· 2h ago
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by june 92% FLAT
2h Nvidia market cap hits $5T amid US-China tech rivalry
Likely NO
Iran uranium surrender
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 6% FLAT
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
2h US bombs Iranian nuclear sites, fate of uranium stockpile uncertain
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
2h Middle East tensions impact energy price expectations amid US interventions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price hit in april
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
3h Bitcoin stabilizes at $75K-$78K after US-Iran ceasefire, market remains calm
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on april 24
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions april 20-26 0% FLAT
3h Bitcoin dominance in 2026 as price holds near $78K
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 26 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
3h Strategy to surpass Satoshi in Bitcoin holdings within 2 years
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in 2026 4% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price hit in 2026 4% FLAT
✓ 24h Grayscale stakes 102,400 ETH via Ethereum Staking ETF, valued at $237M
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
2 articles
Developing
39%
⚡ Iran military action by april 30 100% FLAT
1m Iran sends first Hajj teams to Medina amid Saudi normalization efforts
1h IRGC commanders dominate as Mojtaba Khamenei loses control in Iran
Likely NO
Countries sending warships through hormuz
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 16% FLAT
⚡ Warships through the strait of hormuz 2% FLAT
✓ 214m Iran seizes two ships, Strait of Hormuz traffic declines
1h Germany deploys naval units in Mediterranean amid Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Best Chinese AI company by april 2026
1 article
Developing
71%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
20m White House targets AI theft by Chinese firms, impacting Alibaba’s AI prospects
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
21m EU sanctions to target Russian condensate imports from Yamal LNG by 2027
Likely NO
Trump China visit
1 article
Developing
71%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
⚡ Trump visit China 0% FLAT
27m Trump to visit Beijing May 14 amid Iran war, market odds drop 17.5 points
Likely NO
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 2% FLAT
30m Iran allows oil tankers to cross Strait of Hormuz, easing tensions
Likely NO
Starmer out timing predictions
1 article
Developing
47%
▼0¢
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets 46% FLAT
38m London housing crisis threatens Labour’s control in local elections
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
43m Iran internet blackout hits 57 days amid rising regime change speculation
2h Iran retains significant missile capability amid US-led operations
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
✓ 41h Turkey open to Strait of Hormuz demining if Iran-US peace deal reached
4h IRGC seizes vessel in Strait of Hormuz, escalating maritime conflict
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 3% FLAT
1h Iran resumes commercial flights amid ongoing US-Israel conflict
Likely NO
GPT-5.5 release dates
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ GPT-5.5 release timing 100% FLAT
⚡ GPT-5.5 release dates 100% FLAT
1h OpenAI unveils GPT-5.5 model, settles release date markets YES
4h Sam Altman apologizes for OpenAI’s failure to report flagged activity before shooting
Likely NO
Russia entry into kupiansk-vuzlovyi
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Russia missile attack on Ukraine kills 4, injures 30, says Zelenskiy
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
1h Israeli airstrikes continue amid stagnant ceasefire market conditions
2h Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill six, ceasefire odds remain unchanged
✓ 22h IDF reports Hezbollah ceasefire violations amid rising Lebanon tensions
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
1h Trump confirms three-week extension of Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
2 articles
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 8% FLAT
2h US-Iran talks confirmed in Islamabad, impacting prediction markets
✓ 22h Iran, Pakistan discuss peace proposals amid indirect US-Iran negotiations
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
2 articles
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
⚡ Iran regime fall 0% FLAT
2h Iran executes protester linked to Mossad amid regime crackdown
3h Iran denies direct US talks, stalling peace efforts in Islamabad
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
1 article
· 2h ago
13%
▼0¢
✓ 22h US, Iran ship seizures violate international law, disrupt Hormuz traffic