Iran seizes two ships, Strait of Hormuz traffic declines

Vessel-tracking data from Reuters shows a decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran seized two ships. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 15.5% YES, down from 20% a day ago.

The 5-point fall in the past 24 hours shows traders are skeptical the disruption will resolve quickly. Volume is at $36,459 in USDC over the last day, and $4,658 would move the odds by 5 points.

The market on whether the United Kingdom will send warships through the Strait by April 30 sits at 1.7% YES. The odds haven’t moved despite the seizures, meaning traders don’t expect a UK military response within the next six days. Liquidity is thin at $233 in daily USDC volume, so even small sentiment shifts could cause large price swings.

Iran’s seizure of two ships exposes the fragility of the current ceasefire and raises the probability of further escalation. The action fits the IRGC’s pattern of pressuring maritime routes without fully breaking the truce. A YES share on Strait traffic returning to normal by May 15 at 15.5% pays $1, a potential 6.45x return. That bet is risky without clear signs of diplomatic progress or de-escalation.

Watch for announcements from General Michael Kurilla at CENTCOM or movements by the UK Ministry of Defence. A shift in naval deployments or increased diplomatic engagement could move odds quickly.