Iran’s foreign minister in Islamabad as US envoys head to region

Iran’s Foreign Minister is in Islamabad, with US envoys also en route. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26 now sit at 22% YES, up from 9% a day ago.

The market for a US-Iran meeting on April 25 has seen modest movement, sitting at 3.4% YES, down from 5% yesterday. The April 26 contract surged from 9% to 22%, suggesting traders expect diplomatic action around that date. The gap between the April 25 and April 26 contracts is 18 points, which points to a possible catalyst ahead.

Trading volume across these markets is modest. The April 26 contract saw $525 in actual USDC traded, with just $3 needed to move the price 5 points. The April 30 market on Trump meeting Iran sits flat at 1.8% YES, unchanged from yesterday but down sharply from 22% a week ago.

Both Iranian and US officials are in Islamabad, but Iran has denied direct talks are happening. At 22¢, a YES share for April 26 pays $1 if a meeting occurs, a 4.5x return. To justify that price, you’d need to believe indirect talks will progress into something substantive within two days.

Watch for statements from Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi or US Envoy Steve Witkoff. Any confirmation of indirect talks or a shift in Iran’s stance would likely move these markets.